Macro & Markets Daily — Apr 27, 2026

Records, but barely. The S&P 500 closed at 7,173.91, up 0.12% on the session, and the Nasdaq closed at 24,887.10, up 0.20% on the session — both fresh all-time highs at the close — while the Dow closed at 49,167.79, down 0.13% on the session, and the Russell 2000 closed essentially flat at 2,788.19 on the session. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.34% on the session, Brent crude fell 3.28% on the session to $101.88, and the VIX closed at 18.02 on the session. The session was a holding pattern wearing a record's clothes — the real event risk is the next 72 hours: JOLTS Tuesday, the FOMC Wednesday (likely Powell's last as chair), and four of the Magnificent Seven reporting between Wednesday and Thursday.

Through Pakistani mediators, Iran presented Washington with a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade — with nuclear talks deferred to a later phase. The White House confirmed President Trump and his national security team discussed the offer; Sen. Marco Rubio publicly poured cold water on it, per CNBC. Brent settled at $101.88, down 3.28% on the session, while WTI rose 2.37% on the session to $96.64, the kind of split that tells you physical markets and headline markets are reading different scripts.

The structure of the offer is the tell. Iran appears to be trying to decouple shipping access from the nuclear file, amid Washington's stated refusal to accept that sequencing since the war began. Accept it, and the U.S. surrenders the leverage of its blockade — which, according to PBS and the Washington Times, was designed to deny Tehran oil revenue and potentially force a production shutdown — before the harder negotiation even begins. Reject it, and oil stays priced for persistent disruption while the Fed walks into Wednesday's meeting with crude near triple digits.

JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler wrote to clients that "the market appears to be reducing its reaction to US/Iran headlines with the outcome trending to a short-term deal followed by more detailed negotiations." That's a rational read. It's also exactly the complacency that gets caught flat-footed if Rubio's "unacceptable" framing turns into a formal rejection. Watch for a White House response by Tuesday's close, and EIA crude inventories Wednesday morning — with the Strait closed, any unexpected U.S. drawdown would move Brent more than another round of headlines will.

The most consequential AI business story of the year arrived on a quiet Monday. Per Bloomberg and CNBC, Microsoft and OpenAI announced a revamped partnership that ends Microsoft's exclusive license to OpenAI's intellectual property and caps the revenue-share payments OpenAI owes Microsoft (those payments continue through 2030, but with a ceiling). OpenAI is now free to sell its models through Amazon, Oracle, or Alphabet. Microsoft shares opened lower on the session but closed roughly recovered on the session.

The recovery is the analysis. Microsoft's investment in OpenAI's for-profit arm is valued at $135 billion, or about 27% on an as-converted diluted basis, according to CNBC. The equity stake is now the asset, not the exclusivity clause. If OpenAI grows, Microsoft wins regardless of which cloud serves the inference. If OpenAI stalls, the exclusivity wouldn't have saved Microsoft anyway. What changes if this succeeds: enterprise AI gets meaningfully more competitive, hyperscaler margins compress as model access commoditizes, and the "Microsoft AI moat" thesis that justified part of its multiple needs new scaffolding. What failure looks like: Amazon and Alphabet sign their own OpenAI distribution deals within a quarter — both report Wednesday after the close, and Satya Nadella will have to explain on his own call what the partnership is now actually worth.

Side plot worth watching: Qualcomm jumped roughly 12% on the session on a TF International note from Ming-Chi Kuo reporting that OpenAI is working with Qualcomm and MediaTek on smartphone processors. Apple slipped about 1.5% on the session. OpenAI is now competing on hardware, software, and cloud — simultaneously. Tim Cook gets the Thursday call.

Domino's Pizza missed Q1 expectations and cut its 2026 outlook to low single-digit growth. U.S. same-store sales — which strip out new-store noise and measure whether existing locations are actually filling orders — rose just 0.9% versus the 2.7% expected. The stock closed down 10.5% on the session.

The mechanism is uncomfortably clean. WTI above $95 means higher delivery costs and higher food input costs at the same time. Consumers are already at the lowest sentiment reading since the University of Michigan started the survey in 1952 (as of the April 2026 survey). A $20 delivery pizza is exactly the discretionary line that gets cut first. A 10.5% single-day drop on a guidance cut isn't the market pricing a one-quarter blip — it's the market saying the demand picture is structurally softer than the record indices suggest. The observable signal that tells you whether this is Domino's-specific or consumer-wide arrives Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET: Conference Board consumer confidence (prior 92.9). A print below 90 would undercut the "consumer is fine" narrative. JOLTS lands the same minute — if openings soften alongside it, that narrative stops working.

A pizza chain warned about the American consumer, Iran tried to trade a shipping lane for a nuclear program, and Microsoft handed away its AI exclusivity and the stock barely flinched. Somewhere in Texas a factory manager is filling out a survey with the highest uncertainty score in a year while Tokyo prints another record — which is either the cleanest cross-border AI trade of the cycle or the part of the movie where someone says "it's quiet, too quiet." The VIX closed at 18.02 on the session like nothing's wrong.

See you at the Fed.

Forward this to the friend who's still convinced records mean everything's fine.